Leelanau's population still growing, but at rate slower than G-T, Benzie

Leelanau County is continuing to grow at a fairly healthy clip, at least when compared to the rest of the state, but at a lesser rate than in previous decades and much less than nationally.

Just-released state Census figures show that Leelanau's population jumped 4.6 percent from 2000 to 2006, increasing from 21,119 residents to 22,112.

The numbers will have little direct impact on Leelanau — decade-ending Censuses are used to tabulate political jurisdictions and revenue sharing programs — but do serve notice that the rapid population gains recorded in the 1970s, ‘80s and ‘90s may be giving way to a new era.

Leelanau County housing coordinator Ron Crummel thinks he knows why. He believes home prices have risen to a level considered unaffordable for many families.

"I think it's just a cost factor," said Crummel. "Put the cost of housing up that high, and people can't afford to move in."

Also helping to explain the numbers, he said, has been a loss in enrollment in the Leelanau's four public schools even though the county has attracted nearly 1,000 new residents in the past six years. He said most newcomers are likely retired or retiring, and can better afford a more expensive home than a growing family.

Charlene Schleuter is a lifelong Leelanau County resident whose career revolves around numbers. She is associate director for information services at the Northwest Michigan Council of Governments.

She said Leelanau County does offer some affordable housing in the Cedar and Maple City areas, although determining growth in the south-central portion of Leelanau will have to wait until township and village Census figures are released this summer.

But taking a more regional approach, she said, brings out an obvious gap between the population growth rates of Leelanau County compared to neighboring Grand Traverse and Benzie counties.

Leelanau was the19th fastest growing county in the state. Benzie County came in at No. 2 with a 10.3 percent increase so far this decade; Grand Traverse County was No. 3 at 9.4 percent. Benzie added 1,654 new residents for a population of 17,574; Grand Traverse added 7,298 residents to increase to 84,952.

Schleuter said people are likely seeking to live closer to their jobs, with Traverse City the economic hub of northwest Michigan.

But all those new residents in Grand Traverse, Benzie and Leelanau counties pale in comparison to the fastest-growing county in Michigan. Livingston County, home to Howell and Brighton, grew 17.6 percent to 184,511 residents, adding 27,560 to its population.

Wayne remained the state's largest county at 1,971,853 residents despite losing 4.3 percent of its population in the past six years.

According to state demographer Kenneth Darga, the U.S. population increased 6.4 percent since 2000, while Michigan's population rose only 1.6 percent and was essentially flat during the last year. Some of the state's lackluster growth can be blamed on an increase in net migration to other states, he said, although the loss of residents is not nearly as severe as during the recession of the early 1980's. Still, the Michigan economy has been battered lately by a depressed domestic auto industry.

Michigan's count may be further depressed by U.S. Census rules that count aliens who are working here legally and illegally. Most reside in southern states.

"The catch is that the instructions on Census forms do not provide much useful information about which foreign-born people should be counted. This may result in over counts in areas with a large number of tourists or family visitors, and it probably tends to depress Michigan's share of the national population," he said.

Another inaccuracy built into the system may more directly affect Leelanau, he added.

"Another problem is counting "snowbirds" (as) everyone is supposed to be counted at the address they spend the largest part of the year, but this is not specified on the Census form. It is likely that some people who should be counted in Michigan are counted in the Sunbelt instead."

From a historical perspective, Leelanau's recent growth seems relatively tame. The county's population grew from 16,527 to 21,119 in the 1990's, or 27.8 percent. That followed 18 percent growth in the 1980s and a 28.8 percent growth rate in the 1970s. Leelanau the 1970s with a population of only 10,872.

Surprisingly, Leelanau counted 10,556 residents in 1900. But the county population fell from 1910 through 1930, and remained relatively flat until the 1960s.