Ed. note: This is the third part of a 3-part series that looked at trends in Leelanau County in 2007.

What a difference a couple decades or so can make.

Tom Kelly on the dock behind the Inland
Seas office show islands of sand that have
emerged as lake levels have declined.

The No. 1 story in Leelanau County for 1986 was weather, as reported in the Jan. 2, 1987, edition of the Enterprise. The reason was record high water levels in the Lake Huron/Lake Michigan basin that had shoreline communities scrambling for state and federal grants to stop erosion.

A Feb. 19, 1987, Enterprise article under the headline “Only ‘years of normal rainfall’ will drop Lake Michigan” was followed by coverage of low-interest loans administered by the state Department of Natural Resources to aid homeowners. Village marinas in Suttons Bay and Northport were threatened with water lapping over their docks.

Some 22 years later, Leelanau’s marinas and homeowners are again threatened — with near-record low water levels in the Lake Huron/Lake Michigan basin.

While water levels in the Great Lakes have been steadily dropping for several years, they seemed to fall unabridged in 2007. While a new record has not been set, recent U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reports indicate that a new record low in Lake Michigan is within reach — and a distinct possibility — should dry conditions persist this year.

The Enterprise staff identified low water levels not only in Lake Michigan but also in Leelanau’s inland lakes as one of three significant trends that emerged during the past year. Stories about how a slumping housing market is affecting three of the largest developments ever planned in Leelanau County and how emergency services as provided by Leelanau’s townships are changing, the other two trends, appeared in Jan. 3 and 10 editions.

Tom Kelly, executive director of the Inland Seas Educational Foundation, can point from his office to Suttons Bay toward emerged islands of sand that threaten to prevent mooring the group’s 31-foot sloop Liberty at the end of its dock. A long mound of sand is a strong southern wind away from preventing the foundation’s icon, the 77-foot Inland Seas scooner, from hooking up to the village coal dock.

“I know we could never get her (the Liberty sloop) to our dock right now,” he said.

Likewise, property owners along West Grand Traverse Bay keep extending their private docks, seeking depths that will support their boats.

“Every year we add more sections to the end of the dock,” said Victor Lisabeth, who along with his wife, Nancy, have lived in their waterfront home in Bingham Township for seven years.

Ironically, they can stand on their beach and see where rocks were piled along the shoreline to prevent erosion — probably in 1986, when water levels peaked.

The Lisabeths are also owners of Grand Bay Builders, and as such pay close attention to the construction market. Victor Lisabeth said the low water levels can have the effect of sinking property values along the bay, which in turn can affect their business.

“Some people who are considering remodeling are wondering what will happen to our waterfrontage,” said Lisabeth. “It definitely can affect property values.”

Unlike 22 years ago when news stories simply attributed high water levels to their most visible culprit — lots of rain — the low levels of today have been blamed on a number of factors. Three have stood out: effects from global warming, a massive dredging effort by the Army Corps in the 1960s to improve shipping lanes in Lake St. Clair and the Detroit River, and a simple explanation that the latest fluctuation is part of the natural rise and fall of the Great Lakes.

Kelly, a scientist with a master’s degree from the University of Michigan, has the personal history to believe the simple explanation and the scientific background to give credence to a global climate change theory. But he doesn’t believe the dredging project more than 40 years ago is the reason as a recent underground mapping showed no signs of an eroding lake bottom, and the lakes reached all-time highs after the project.

“I remember when I was a kid in high school, the water was at a record low in the 1960s,” said Kelly, who grew up along the Lake Michigan coastline in Muskegon County. “There were islands in the lake. Then the water came back up to the point we didn’t know what to do with it.”

But while he has watched the lakes rise and fall for no confirmed scientific reason, studies indicating that the Great Lakes basin will grow increasingly drier and warmer due to global warming have him concerned.

“Even if (the lower lake level) is totally driven by the weather, the question is will the rainfall come back to average?” he asked. “I’m an optimist, but I’m also a scientist, so I’m looking at both sides of it.”

So far, he said, the low were levels have been an inconvenience but had no long-term effect on the ecology of the Great Lakes, or even on inland lakes. The Lake Michigan water level has dropped about 5 feet since its high mark in 1986, and is within two inches of the recorded low in 1965.

While exact measurements of Great Lakes levels began around 1860, scientists believe the present level may be the lowest ever for Lake Michigan as recorded in meters above sea level. Lake Michigan has dipped below the modern average of 176 meters above sea level, but rose to nearly 178 meters above sea level about 1600 years ago and 181 meters above sea levels about 4,600 years ago.

Even further back in time, some 7,000 years ago, Kelly said Great Lakes levels were extremely low — to the point that the Boardman River may have flowed to the end of Grand Traverse Bay.

He’s hopeful water levels rise again.

“For the homeowner, the boater, for the people who are on the water, there isn’t a whole lot we can do except be patient,” he said.