Leelanau has lost residents since 2004.
Leelanau County's population was smaller last year than it was four years ago, according to estimates released last week by state officials.

Virtually stagnant population growth so far in the 21st century in Leelanau County stands in sharp contrast double-digit percentage increases seen in the latter part of the 20th century and is part of a statewide trend, according to officials.

“We are naturally very concerned about this trend,” said Greg Julian, chairman of the Leelanau County Planning Commission. “Although we to strive to control growth through planning and zoning, we have always hoped and expected that Leelanau County would continue to grow and thrive. Fortunately, the situation here does not seem to be as serious as it is elsewhere in the state.”

Leelanau County’s estimated population reached its all time peak in 2004 at 21,916 people, but dropped to 21,871 in 2005, remained at exactly the same level 2006, and somewhat rebounded to 21,898 in 2007 – but remained 18 people below the 2004 estimated population.

Charlene Schleuter, a planner with the Northwest Michigan Council of Governments, cautioned that looking at estimates on a year-to-year basis can be misleading.

“Because they’re estimates and not counts, there’s too much room for variations from year-to-year when you’re dealing with such small numbers as is found in Leelanau,” Schlueter said. “That’s why I always look at the percent change between the most current estimate and the 2000 Census numbers … it has the effect of smoothing out between-year anomalies.”

The Decennial Census conducted in 2000 enumerated 21,119 people in Leelanau County. The most recent estimate since then, for 2007, pegs the county’s population at 21,898 – about 3.7 percent higher than the number of people actually counted in 2000. But the estimated change in population over the past four years has represented a drop in residents, meaning that virtually all of Leelanau’s growth occurred from 2000-2003.
Leelanau County incurred phenomenal growth throughout the latter half of the 20th century.

According to Census data, there were 10,872 people counted in Leelanau County in 1970.
That number increased around 22 percent over the decade, with the population reaching 14,007 by 1980. Between 1980 and 1990, when the population reached 16,527, growth was about 15.3 percent. In the last decade, the population shot up another 22 percent, to the 21,119 people enumerated in the 2000 Census.

Schleuter said the data make it clear that growth has slowed, at least.

“Even if you look at the change since the 2000 Census, we’re seeing a lower growth rate so far this decade,” Schleuter said.

She noted that while Leelanau’s population has grown by 3.7 percent since 2000, growth in neighboring Grand Traverse County has been 10.1 percent during the same time period.

“I look at that and immediately think of two things – jobs and housing costs,” said Schleuter. “If you throw in increasing commuting costs due to gas prices, it seems like there may be several factors that could actually indicate Leelanau is due for a population decline. Maybe the continuing pursuit of desirability for the perfect ‘Leelanau life’ has resulted in stagnation instead, though.”

Former Northport resident Shannon Wilcox may provide the perfect example. Wilcox, the assistant market director at the Tom’s grocery store on West Bay, moved last August from Northport, where she was born and raised, to East Bay Township.

“Plus, I’m a single mother and I’d rather spend more time with my son than up to two hours a day driving back and forth from Northport,” Wilcox said.

Leelanau will soon get Wilcox back as a resident, without the drive time. She plans to relocate to Leelanau when she moves in to the home of her boyfriend’s sister, who lives off M-72 near Gallagher’s Farm Market in Elmwood Township

Population shifts for Leelanau County are miniscule compared to other areas of Michigan. In Wayne County – where the City of Detroit is located – the population dropped more precipitously than anywhere in the state. Census numbers released last week showed that four Metro Detroit counties – Wayne, Oakland, Macomb and Livingston – had more residents going than coming in 2007.

Wayne County lost 35,296 people in 2007; Oakland 7,101; Macomb 1,412; and Livingston 265. Nonetheless, Livingston County came out on top in terms of the percentage increase in population between the 2000 Census and the 2007 estimate – an overall population increase of 16.7 percent so far this century.

More than two-thirds of Michigan’s counties lost population last year, according to estimates released last week by Michigan demographer Kenneth Darga. So far this century, Livingston is the fast-growing county in Michigan, with Grand Traverse and Benzie behind as the second and third fastest growing counties.

Leelanau ranks 21st in growth since 2000 out of Michigan’s 83 counties, although the relatively lofty position is a reflection in recent years of losing fewer residents than its counterparts.