If you want to be president for four more years and your victory may hinge on your opponent being in the slammer, you’d have to say things are pretty shaky.
That’s the harsh reality the Joe Biden for President campaign is staring in the face these days based on the latest Michigan swing state polling data from EPIC-MRA.
In the last survey, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were statistically tied but not anymore. The former president opened up a 46%41% lead buttressed in part by a big chunk of voters who think the incumbent is too old for another four years.
It’s not that Mr. Biden doesn’t have some support. It’s just that that support is not as strong as in the past. Best example is the African-American vote. It’s now about 66% which is respectable but it was 20 or so points higher in previous data. The same thing with union voters. Some of that foundation is crumbling.
Mr. Biden has a slim threepoint lead, which is within the margin of error, with female voters over 50 but Mr. Trump leads with younger women and both younger and older men.
The pro-choice vote, women and men, are clearly with J.B. by over 25 points.
Yet Mr. Trump is taking the all important Independent voter with 56%-8% of the men and 35%26% of Independent females and it’s tough to win without a stronger showing in that category.
College educated voters like the incumbent but those with less than a high school diploma are mad about Mr. Trump and there are more of them than voters with a sheep skin.
So when you add up all the data on this snap shot in time, there was probably some indigestion around the White House Thanksgiving banquet last week.
But back to the first paragraph. Facing 91 counts of alleged wrong doing for his role in the Jan. 6 disturbance to his handling of secret documents stuck away in the Trump mansion bathroom in Florida, Mr. Trump’s legal woes are real.
And 44% of the voters who might vote for Mr. Trump tell pollster Bernie Porn, they would reconsider if the former president is found guilty which could result in a visit to some state pen.
It’s a glimmer of hope for the Biden folks but they know it would be downright foolish to pin their hopes on Mr. Trump going to the slammer. And don’t kid yourself, even more Trump voters might show up if that happened.
Bottom-line, it is not a winning strategy.
