When political races are TCTC — too close to call — the fascinating speculation is that anyone of a whole host of variables could determine the winner. That is where the state and country are as the long-awaited end to the dead heat battle between the former GOP president and current Democratic Vice President.
Set aside the old bromide about the winner is based on turnout, turnout, turnout. Obviously but the deeper question is which group turns out in a large enough number to turn this election one way or the other where the margin of victory around these parts could be 11,000 or less like it was in 2016. Or only 150,000 in Michigan in 2020.
For example if you accept the premise that women vote in larger numbers than men, the winner is surely Kamala Harris. She has consistently garnered more female voters than Donald Trump and in one recent survey it was a 22 point advantage for her over him.
Ditto when it comes to seniors over 65 who really like her and everybody knows they vote more than any other age group. Although in a crazy and unexplainable twist, Mr. Trump beats her with those between the ages of 50 to 60.
Game over? Not so fast boys and girls. Mr. Trump has a very respectable lead of 19 points with men in general but here’s the kicker for him. Among non-college educated voters from both genders, his lead is 21 points and everyone know there are more of those folks than there are college trained voters. They unabashedly flock to Ms. Harris giving her a 23-point lead. So even if the entire sheep-skin crowd plunked for her, there are not enough for her to win on that alone.
Then in Michigan there is the so-called “Kennedy” factor. Informed voters know that the son of Robert Kennedy has announced he is not a candidate in this state, but despite a mountain of legal papers filed with every court in the universe, he was unable to have his name removed from the Michigan ballot.
If you buy the popular notion that a vote for Kennedy is one less vote for Mr. Trump, then all the unaware voters who don’t know all this and still vote for him, could cost Mr. Trump the election if it’s a photo finish. No one is predicting that, but it certainly can not be ruled out.
Then there is the absentee vote.
Although Mr. Trump and company have finally realized they need to be competitive in the absentee market, the Democrats could provide the margin of victory with a robust showing in this category while the GOP finds itself far behind.
Not saying this will happen, but it is certainly in the cards and the other side knows it which is why their push to send their voters to the mail box and not the polls is so intense.
A true “X” factor that could determine the margin for a slim victory, the Trump campaign has had an internal debate about spending resources to nudge disaffected/ normally non-voting Republicans to vote. Some on the ex-prez’s team have argued the money should go to get independent and disgruntled Democrats in the fold, but the man at the top is insistent on reaching out to this mostly male/macho/I don’t give a darn crowd to push him over the finish line.
If this strategy works, Mr. Trump will look like a genius.
But if it fails and the pundits declare it is the reason he lost, you pick the adjective to describe Mr. T. then.
All and all there is plenty to digest when all this is over to ascertain why one or the other lost — assuming it is over before Santa gets in his sled.
