Homeostasis and Michigan voters. The two go together.
Now be honest. When is the last time you read a column, let alone a political column, dealing with the desire to keep things in balance. Or put another way, an aversion to knee-jerk change.
For the past five decades in this state, Michigan voters have developed a habit, but to juice it up a bit, let’s label it the “governor’s open seat curse.”
Here’s how the curse works. If the Republicans have held the governorship for eight years or more, voters will pick a Democrat the next time there is an open seat thus reducing the chances that a GOP candidate can win. And conversely if the Democrats have held the seat for eight years, the Republicans will win in the next election.
Michigan pollster Bernie Porn has seen this in action and advises, “it would appear that way and it may well be that that will happen again” in 2026.
You want proof ? Check this out. It commenced with the Milliken years starting back in the ‘70s.
Michigan citizens liked him and his brand of bi-partisan politics, so they stuck with him for 14 years which is a perfect example of political homeostasis in the electorate.
But then the body politic pulled the old switch-eroo and picked a Democrat to succeed him. And Jim Blanchard continued to serve for eight years before voters changed to John Engler, a Republican.
Do you see the pattern emerging here.
Voters hung around with him for 12 years and then, you guessed it, they picked a Democrat named Jennifer Granholm.
She stayed for eight years and voters picked a Republican to replace her, Rick Snyder.
Eight years after that voters abandoned the Republicans and picked a Democrat Gretchen Whitmer which brings us to the next governor’s race, an open seat, and if the curse holds, the Democrats won’t win.
Again Mr. Porn, tongue in cheek. “Given the consistency of that pattern one would almost think that the Democrats ought to just concede the election in 2026.”
Of course the D’s won’t but if the voters change their minds every eight years or so for the last six decades, the R’s may replace Ms. Whitmer.
However, and there is always a caveat with curses such as this, Mr. Porn points to an “X” factor that could see the Democrats keeping the front office.
It all depends, he reasons, on the “T” factor.
He reports depending on how Mr. Trump performs over the next two years that could be good or mucho bad news for any GOP candidate for governor. If the auto industry here has shed jobs like a snake sheds its skin, voters may be upset. If we are war with anybody that’s never a good sign for the party in power and you get the point.
These are some of the things that could cause an impact on the Michigan governor’s race as well as how the GOP candidates for governor support or oppose the actions of President Trump.
Does he become the “curse” on the GOP governor candidate or do the voters impose the historic homeostasis “curse” on the Democrat hoping to break it?
Good question, hey!
