Sen. Gary Peters’s decision not to seek a third term has opened up one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country, and with Michigan’s Aug. 4 primary three weeks away, both parties are settling into their lanes: a narrowing two-person scrap on the Democratic side, and a Republican field that has cleared for one candidate.
The seat matters well beyond Michigan.
Control of the U.S. Senate could hinge on a handful of races like this one, and both parties have treated it accordingly — pouring in national money, national endorsements and national attention.
The Democratic primary was a three-way contest until July 5, when state Sen. Mallory McMorrow suspended her campaign, saying she couldn’t break through in a field that had consolidated around her two rivals, Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed.
Stevens, who represents an Oakland County-based district and has positioned herself as the race’s moderate, picked up an endorsement from Peters himself after previously stating he would remain neutral.
El-Sayed, a physician who ran for governor in 2018 and led Wayne County’s health department through the pandemic, is running as the field’s progressive, with backing from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Polling has told two different stories depending on who’s asking. A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll of 500 likely Democratic primary voters conducted in July found Stevens leading El-Sayed 48% to 41%, with about 10% undecided. An earlier survey from Tavern Research, polling 2,211 likely primary voters, found the two candidates statistically tied, with Stevens ahead by just a single point inside the margin of error. What isn’t in dispute is the money: outside super PACs backing Stevens have outspent those backing El-Sayed by roughly 12 to 1 on television advertising in the final stretch before the primary, $26.9 million to $2.1 million.
On the Republican side, there’s effectively no primary at all. Former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, a former Army officer, FBI special agent and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, is making his second straight run for the seat after losing narrowly to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024 by less than half a percentage point. President Donald Trump gave Rogers his “complete and total endorsement” this cycle, as he did in 2024.
Rogers has built his campaign around bringing manufacturing jobs back to Michigan, lowering the cost of gas, groceries and prescription drugs, protecting Social Security, and improving public education. He points to his role creating Michigan’s 529 college savings program and his vote for the 2009 auto industry rescue as evidence he can deliver for the state’s manufacturing base.
General-election polling shows no clear front-runner yet, and the numbers shift depending on which Democrat ends up as the nominee.
For now, the only certainty is that Michigan will have a new senator for the first time in over a decade, and that both parties see this seat as one of the races most likely to decide who runs the Senate next year.
